Monday, 16 January 2017

IMF Predicts 0.8% Growth for Nigeria in 2017

A week after the World Bank projected Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by one percent in 2017, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has put up a less optimistic outlook.

Earlier, the federal government, had said Nigeria’s GDP will grow at three percent in 2017, surging by 4.26 percent in 2018.

But according to IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, Nigeria’s GDP will grow by 0.8 percent in 2017 — 0.2 percentage points less than the World Bank's outlook— and 2.3 percent in 2018.

“Global growth for 2016 is now estimated at 3.1 percent, in line with the October 2016 forecast. Economic activity in both advanced economies and EMDEs is forecast to accelerate in 2017–18, with global growth projected to be 3.4 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively, again unchanged from the October forecasts,” WEO report read in part.

“Notably, the growth forecast for 2017 was revised up for China (to 6.5 percent, 0.3 percentage point above the October forecast) on expectations of continued policy support.

“Nigeria’s forecasts were also revised up, primarily reflecting higher oil production due to security improvements.”

The report, which was released on Monday afternoon, also states that South Africa’s economy will grow at the same pace with Nigeria’s – 0.8 percent.

Maurice Obstfeld, IMF economic counsellor and director of the research department, on behalf of Christine Lagarde, MD of the IMF, said global economy will also grow by an improved 3.4 percent.

“Our central projection is that global growth will rise to a rate of 3.4 percent in 2017 and 3.6 percent in 2018, from a 2016 rate of 3.1 percent,” Obstfeld said.

“A faster pace of expansion would be especially welcome this year: global growth in 2016 was the weakest since 2008-09, owing to a challenging first half marked initially by turmoil in world financial markets.

“In many countries, previous downward pressures on headline inflation weakened, in part owing to firming commodity prices. A significant repricing of assets followed the U.S. presidential election”.

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